I don’t know what the outcome of this blog post will be, but I think that due to the remarkable nature of the day, I should at least make some kind of comment.
It’s hardly a coincidence that Tony decided to depart in 2007. Notching up the big one-zero is a pretty important achievement, and he knows he’s leaving while there is still life left in the old politician yet. He’s definitely in the minority here, as most PM’s of recent times have been much more decrepit than the youthful age of 54 that Mr. Blair has bowed out at.
The whole departure seemed typically New Labour spirited. In the early days Alastair Campbell and his team of spinners served a ‘great purpose’ to The Party, but after a few years they fell out of fashion (Jo Moore sealed the deal on their eventual departure). But by the time they had packed up and gone, Tony had completed his apprenticeship, and was pretty well versed in the importance of a beaming smile.
I’ve heard him described as very good actor on many occasions, and twice again today. Combine his ability as a barrister with occasional emotional falter in the voice and he showed he could wind a powerful spell. A captivating orator who seemed to be talking genuinely, no matter what he was saying.
Of course, his departure all worked out rather well for him, but it was always going to. With months to plan the whole thing out, he was never going to make silly little errors like Edward Heath, who forgot to order a car to pick him up from the palace after handing in his resignation (after all, it’s only the current Prime Minister who gets to use the official convoy).
Had he done a John Major and left with a falling majority, people would have said he had lost his flair. Margaret Thatcher remains bitter to this day to the sort of quick and dirty ousting she got back in 1990. But whatever Blair has been blamed of, his faults and his failures were forgotten for one day as he breezed through the very congenial, if not warm, goodbye party that was PMQs. How many departing prime ministers have ever garnered a standing ovation in The House, let alone one joined by the opposition? (For the record, it’s none.)
The whole thing was beautifully orchestrated without appearing to have lifted a finger. It’s almost as though it was completely normal to happen so smoothly. Announcing his departure months in advance infuriated those who wanted to see the back of him, but after the press had had picked the carcass of the story clean, there was little they could do but sit back, cover new ground and speculate what would happen after.
And so sailed along Tony. By the time he’d named His Date the press were far too busy with the carrion of Deputy Leadership, the ‘clunking fist’ of our premier-in-waiting and the chatter over the possibility there might be an election to think about picking-on old Tony. It seemed like he was just an office-personality stepping into retirement, and you usually bake a cake for that person.
By the time Blair uttered his last words, everyone knew the man who was talking had effectively wrapped everything up and there was little left to say. Even the ever divisive issue of Iraq had been talked to boredom, and so everyone resigned to be nice to Tony as he quietly handed over his party leadership, dropped off the keys to Number 10, bid farewell to his constituents and drove off into the rosy glow of a New Labour sunset. Whether he deserved it or not, it was all very, very graceful.
But how will time judge him? Often political figures are compared and contrasted to their contemporaries and their successors. Asquith to Lloyd-George, Churchill to Atlee, Thatcher to Major – with Tony it will undoubtedly be Gordon. For the past ten years sparring between political parties has been in the featherweight class (as part of the scramble for the ‘centre ground’), and at times the ugliest battles have been fought within the ranks of the Labour Party itself.
In my view Mr Blair will, eventually, sit quite content with his position in history. The unpopularity of Iraq is going to become Brown’s issue (if he is savvy enough he will be able to brush that one off as Tony’s big mistake). The thing is that when you are fit and well and looking for another career on the world stage (for example as an envoy to the Middle East), you’ll have enough time to rewrite history pen your memoirs and forge another less divisive personality. That’s made a lot easier when your new job is one where your involvement can only reflect favourably on you.
And harking back ninety years; the man who sold peerages by the dozen, kept a wife and several mistress and thought that starting a war in the east would rally popular opinion when it did the reverse – a maverick and corrupter; Lloyd George by all regards should be disliked and condemned, but those who know about him mostly quite like the guy. The passing of time makes funny waves that can distort realities.
As for Tony, I can’t say I’d let him into my heart like quirky old LG. However, I have a feeling that if you give it twenty years, opinion will be wistfully reminiscent. Even his foreign policy, considerably flawed at times, made a critical impact in bringing peace to warring territories, got rid of a vicious regime and pushed the poverty agenda when others resisted. We’ll all be using the same rose-tinted spectacles that some people are wearing now, quarter of a century after the quelling of the Unions and the controversial tactics of the war in the Falklands.
So if you thought you’d seen the last of the Blairs, you’d be wrong. I’m fairly sure Mr and Mrs B will be around for a little longer yet; the gears of the publicity machine will take a while to wind down. And I think there is some salt to be pinched as Cherie makes the acerbic remark to the cameras, “We won’t miss you” — you can catch her exclusive documentary on the life of the PM’s wife at 9.30pm on 4 July, BBC One. Now that’s scheduling if ever I’ve seen it.